This Butterfly effect will only become available if Sam finds Hannah's Journal (Twins Clue #20) by the water wheel.
Twins Clue #20
[Chapter 10] Shortly after starting the chapter with Sam and Mike, drop off from the ledge and down to the water. Keep moving to the left and climb up the ledge left of the water wheel. You’ll find Hannah’s Journal there. This is a very important piece of clue and the last one in The Twins series of clues. If you didn’t miss any in the previous chapters, you’ll unlock the trophy “The Tale of the Two Sisters” after flipping through the pages and unlock the new Butterfly Effect. (Important Discovery)
Butterfly Effect Update
When heading back with Josh and Mike, they'll have to wade through the freezing water once again before getting attacked by the wendigo. If Sam finds the journal, Josh will recognize the tattoo on the wendigo's arm and he'll be dragged by the wendigo instead after recognizing each other. If the journal is not found, this is the moment where Josh is killed.